Sam Houston vs Florida International

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:16 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Florida International / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / FIU’s 6-5 record and recent offensive output (38+ pts in wins) exploit Sam Houston’s porous defense allowing 38 pts avg recently

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 51.5 at -110 / 55% / Sam Houston games averaging 60+ total pts lately, FIU capable of 30+, poor defenses suggest shootout

💰 Best Bet #3 Florida International / Moneyline / -160 / 62% / Better overall form, road win potential vs struggling 2-9 Bearkats

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Sam Houston | 35% |
| Win % for Florida International | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Sam Houston (+3.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 51.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20.1, 14.3] |

🏈 Matchup: Sam Houston vs Florida International on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Florida International 68% / Sam Houston 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Florida International 75% / Sam Houston 25%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Florida International -4.5, moved to -3.5 despite heavy public action on FIU, hinting sharp money on Sam Houston side

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on FIU spread; sim probs exceed implied odds (58% cover > 52.4% break-even), supported by record disparity and recent trends

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors FIU aligning with better record and form, but divergent money % suggests some sharp interest in home dog Sam Houston amid line softening. Math and sim favor FIU cover narrowly with positive EV, though high totals expected from defensive weaknesses (Sam allowing 38/gm, FIU explosive wins). Overall outlook leans high-scoring given recent game scripts.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Florida International — superior metrics and sim edge outweigh minor RLM signals in low-volume CUSA finale.

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