San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-07 07:40 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-07 05:49 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Houston Rockets / Spread / -4.5 at -108 / 55% Confidence
Rockets hold a strong edge with their top-5 defense allowing just 109.6 PPG this season, while Spurs’ DRTG has slipped to 113.5 without key depth; simulation shows 52% cover rate for Houston, supported by line stability and sharp money alignment.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 224.5 at -112 / 52% Confidence
Both teams rank in the bottom-5 for pace (Spurs ~100, Rockets 103.2), with elite defenses limiting possessions; recent trends show unders hitting in 6 of Rockets’ last 7 road games, and simulation projects avg total of 223 points.

💰 Best Bet #3 Houston Rockets / Moneyline / -175 / 58% Confidence
Rockets’ 5-2 record and 116.5 ORTG overpower Spurs’ 5-1 mark hampered by injuries (Fox questionable); public (57%) and money (71%) converge on Houston, with no reverse line movement indicating value.

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🏀 Matchup: San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets on 2025-11-07

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

Houston Rockets 57% / San Antonio Spurs 43%

💰 Money Distribution

Houston Rockets 71% / San Antonio Spurs 29%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Stable at Houston -4.5 across books like DraftKings and FanDuel since open; slight steam toward under on total from 225 to 224.5, no RLM despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% EV on Rockets spread and under total; implied probs (Rockets ML ~64%) undervalue simulation’s 58% win rate, boosted by Rockets’ rebounding edge (top-10) vs Spurs’ recent fatigue post-Lakers loss.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 42% |
| Win % for Houston Rockets | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for San Antonio Spurs (+4.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 223 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 6] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Victor Wembanyama / Over Points / 25.5 at -120 / 62% Confidence
Wembanyama averages 26.8 PPG this season with 30% usage; Rockets’ frontcourt (Sengun/Adams) vulnerable to length (allow 28 PPG to bigs), hitting over in 7/8 home games—offensive efficiency (TS% 58%) supports blowout potential.

Player Prop #2: Alperen Sengun / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -146 / 58% Confidence
Sengun grabs 9.2 RPG on 15% rebound rate; Spurs rank bottom-10 in defensive rebounding (68%), allowing 12 RPG to centers—recent form (10+ in 6/7) and matchup pace favor over without VanVleet’s pace push.

Player Prop #3: Amen Thompson / Over Assists / 5.5 at -138 / 55% Confidence
Thompson dishes 6.1 APG with Fox questionable boosting usage; Spurs’ perimeter D yields 25 APG to wings, and his 28% assist rate in transition thrives vs low-pace Spurs—hit in 5/7 starts this season.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Houston (57% bets, 71% money), aligning with sharp action and no reverse movement, making a follow optimal over fading; math confirms EV on Rockets due to superior net rating (+6.2 vs Spurs +2.8) and injuries tilting the scale. Game outlook leans low-scoring with both teams’ top-5 defenses clamping efficiency (combined ORTG allowed 108 PPG last 5), favoring under amid neutral rest.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Houston Rockets — superior form, defensive matchup, and simulation convergence point to 58% win probability despite public hype.

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