San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-02 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 07:02 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Spurs / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 55% / Spurs hold strong home edge with 13-6 record, superior ratings despite injuries, covering 55% in sims amid Grizzlies’ depleted roster without Morant.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 228.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams hampered by injuries to key scorers, recent trends show defensive focus and lower pace, sim favors under 58% with avg total 228.4.

💰 Best Bet #3 Spurs / Moneyline / -235 / 62% / Simulation projects 62% win probability for Spurs leveraging home court and Grizzlies’ 1-10 revenging losses ATS slump.

San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 62% |
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 228.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, +2.1] |

💸 Public Bets
Spurs 68% / Grizzlies 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Spurs 76% / Grizzlies 24%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Spurs -4.5, moved to -5.5 with balanced action despite public lean, indicating sharp support for home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Spurs spread; sim cover rate exceeds implied odds probability, bolstered by RLM and injury-adjusted metrics.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Over 22.5 Points / -115 / 72% / Jackson averages 24.1 PPG recently without Morant boosting usage, faces Spurs’ weak interior sans Wembanyama.

Player Prop #2: Keldon Johnson / Over 18.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Johnson thrives at home (21.2 PPG last 10), elevated role with Castle out, Grizzlies rank bottom-10 defending wings.

Player Prop #3: Desmond Bane / Under 6.5 Assists / -120 / 65% / Bane’s usage spikes sans Morant but assist avg drops to 4.8 in similar spots, Spurs force turnovers (top-8 TO%).

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align heavily on Spurs, matching sharp indicators via line movement toward the favorite despite volume. Follow the market consensus as EV confirms value on home spread with Grizzlies’ injury-riddled backcourt (Morant, Pippen Jr., Jerome out). Game projects low-scoring under due to missing star bigs on both sides, defensive rebounding edges, and subpar offensive ratings.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Spurs — 62% sim win rate and cover edge outweigh public fade risks in high-consensus spot.

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