San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-31 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-31 06:24 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [San Antonio Spurs / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 55% / Spurs hold a slight home edge with strong ATS record (9-5-1), while Knicks struggle on the road (3-11 ATS); injuries to Hart and Robinson weaken Knicks’ rebounding and defense.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 227.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams average high pace and efficiency ratings this season; Spurs’ recent games trend over, and Knicks’ offense with Towns and Brunson pushes scoring despite defensive absences.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [San Antonio Spurs / Moneyline / -125 / 52% / Simulation gives Spurs 52% win probability at home, supported by revenge factor from earlier matchup and Knicks’ key absences.]

San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks on 2025-12-31

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[40% / 60%]

💰 Money Distribution

[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at pick’em but moved to Spurs -1.5 despite 60% public on Knicks, indicating sharp action on home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Spurs spread; reverse line movement against public supports value, with simulation cover rate at 51% exceeding implied odds probability.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 52% |
| Win % for New York Knicks | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for San Antonio Spurs | 51% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 227.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, +6.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Victor Wembanyama / Over 25.5 Points / 25.5 at -115 / 72% / Wembanyama’s usage rate spikes to 32% without Vassell; averages 28.2 PPG in recent home games, exploiting Knicks’ weakened frontcourt sans Robinson.
Player Prop #2: Jalen Brunson / Over 28.5 Points / 28.5 at -110 / 68% / Brunson leads Knicks scoring at 29.1 PPG this season; Hart’s absence increases his ball-handling, with 70% hit rate over in last 10 road games against similar defenses.
Player Prop #3: Karl-Anthony Towns / Over 12.5 Rebounds / 12.5 at -112 / 65% / Towns grabs 13.4 RPG average, rising to 15+ without Robinson; Spurs allow high rebound rates to bigs, and his 75% over rate in matchups with elite centers like Wembanyama supports this.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors the Knicks due to star power, but divergent money and reverse line movement point to sharp support for the Spurs, creating value on the home side. Injuries to key Knicks players like Hart and Robinson tilt the matchup toward San Antonio’s athleticism and home ATS trends. Overall game outlook leans toward a moderate-scoring affair, with both offenses capable but defensive absences pushing toward the over based on pace and efficiency metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on New York Knicks] — mathematical probability favors Spurs with positive EV from line movement and simulation edges.

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