San Diego State Aztecs vs Wyoming Cowboys

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-01 07:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 06:33 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Wyoming Cowboys / Spread / +10.5 at -115 / 52% Confidence / Wyoming’s defense has limited explosive plays, and SDSU’s recent wins have been closer than expected; simulation shows near-even cover probability despite public heavy on favorite.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 42.5 at -110 / 55% Confidence / Both teams rank low in yards per play and success rate, with Wyoming’s havoc rate stifling offenses; average simulated total of 42 points favors the under amid defensive matchup.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [San Diego State Aztecs / Moneyline / -400 / 94% Confidence / Aztecs’ 6-1 record and superior SP+ rating dominate, with 93.6% simulated win rate aligning with sharp money despite public overexposure.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Diego State Aztecs | 93.6% |
| Win % for Wyoming Cowboys | 6.4% |
| Spread Cover % for San Diego State Aztecs | 49.6% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45.7% / Under: 54.3% |
| Average Total Points | 42.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 24] |

Matchup: San Diego State Aztecs vs Wyoming Cowboys on 2025-11-01

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
San Diego State 81% / Wyoming 19%

💰 Money Distribution
San Diego State 84% / Wyoming 16%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at -9.5, moved to -10.5 with balanced action; slight steam toward favorite but stable total at 42.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% EV on Wyoming +10.5 due to sim cover near even and public overreaction to SDSU streak; +2.8% on under from defensive metrics and low avg total.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: [Jordan Chappell (SDSU QB) / Over Passing Yards / 220.5 / -110 / 68% Confidence / Chappell’s 65% completion rate and Wyoming’s secondary allowing 250+ yards in recent games support over; SDSU’s tempo favors passing volume against a weakened pass rush.]

Player Prop #2: [Ayden Green (Wyoming RB) / Under Rushing Yards / 45.5 / -115 / 62% Confidence / Green’s 3.8 YPC faces SDSU’s top-30 rush defense (havoc rate 18%); simulation projects low Wyoming output in a likely deficit.]

Player Prop #3: [Trey White (SDSU WR) / Over Receptions / 5.5 / -105 / 70% Confidence / White’s 7.2 targets per game exploit Wyoming’s man coverage weaknesses; recent form shows 6+ catches in 4 of last 5, boosted by home spread advantage.]

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors San Diego State across bets and money, but divergent money distribution hints at sharp resistance on the spread, creating value on Wyoming amid the Aztecs’ streak potentially inflating lines. Defensive metrics for both sides—SDSU’s success rate defense and Wyoming’s turnover margin—point to a low-scoring affair under 42.5, with no major injuries shifting the outlook. Following the public on the moneyline aligns with math, but fading on spread and total offers the strongest EV edges.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Wyoming +10.5] — simulation and RLM confirm mathematical probability against overexposed favorite.

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