San Diego Toreros vs Idaho State Bengals

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-07 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-07 06:00 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [San Diego Toreros / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 55% / San Diego’s home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency give them a strong edge to cover against an Idaho State team adjusting to road play early in the season.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 53% / Both teams’ defensive metrics and slower tempos in recent exhibitions suggest a controlled, lower-scoring affair below the line.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [San Diego Toreros / Moneyline / -225 / 68% / Toreros’ offensive firepower and home-court dominance outweigh the Bengals’ underdog status.]

San Diego Toreros vs Idaho State Bengals on 2025-11-07

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[70% / 30%]

💰 Money Distribution

[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line stable at -4.5 for San Diego with minimal movement, indicating steady sharp action on the favorite despite public leaning.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.5% on San Diego spread; implied probabilities from odds undervalue Toreros’ home efficiency edge per current season metrics.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Diego Toreros | 68.0% |
| Win % for Idaho State Bengals | 30.0% |
| Spread Cover % for San Diego Toreros | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 150.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.5, 11.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors San Diego, aligning with money distribution and sharp action, making following the favorite the optimal approach backed by efficiency ratings and home advantage. No significant reverse line movement or contrarian signals present. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate-paced contest with defensive focus, favoring the under based on both teams’ early-season rebounding and turnover rates.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with San Diego Toreros — mathematical probability supports the home favorite covering and winning outright.

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