San Diego vs Minnesota United FC

League: MLS | Date: 2025-11-24 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-24 07:51 PM EST

San Diego FC vs Minnesota United FC on 2025-11-24

💰 Best Bet #1 [San Diego FC / Win / -120 / 58% / San Diego holds a strong home advantage in this playoff matchup, bolstered by superior xG metrics and recent form, making them the clear favorite against an injury-hit Minnesota side.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Draw / Tie / +300 / 27% / Even matchup dynamics with defensive setups from both teams suggest a potential stalemate, especially if key attackers are limited by injuries.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Minnesota United FC / Win / +350 / 22% / As underdogs, Minnesota could capitalize on San Diego’s injury concerns, but their road struggles reduce the edge despite sharp value.]

Game Times

ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[65% / 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -110 for San Diego win and has moved to -120 amid sharp action on the home side, despite public leaning toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on San Diego win; positive EV derived from simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds, supported by home xG dominance and Minnesota’s away defensive lapses in the 2025 season.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Diego FC | 55% |
| Win % for Minnesota United FC | 20% |
| Draw % | 25% |
| Spread Cover % for San Diego FC (-0.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability (2.5 Goals) | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 2.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1, +2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors San Diego as the home favorite, but divergent money distribution indicates sharp action supporting the home win, aligning with mathematical edges from xG and form data. Following the public on San Diego is optimal here, as contrarian fades lack EV support amid injury impacts on both sides. Overall game scoring outlook points to a low-to-moderate total, with defensive metrics suggesting under 2.5 goals is slightly favored due to playoff caution and Minnesota’s travel fatigue.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with San Diego FC] — mathematical probability favors the home win based on current season metrics and simulation convergence.

Highlights unavailable.