San Diego vs Vancouver Whitecaps

League: MLS | Date: 2025-11-29 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 06:59 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [San Diego FC / Win / +140 / 58% / Home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium, superior xG (1.8 recent), simulation 52% win prob exceeds implied 42% for +EV]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Draw / Tie / +260 / 28% / Vancouver’s road draw tendency in playoffs, balanced possession metrics suggest stalemate possible despite public fade]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Vancouver Whitecaps / Win / +175 / 22% / Underdog value if sharp money holds, but low sim prob limits edge amid San Diego’s form]

San Diego FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
San Diego FC 68% / Vancouver Whitecaps 32%

💰 Money Distribution
San Diego FC 58% / Vancouver Whitecaps 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
San Diego ML steady at +140 from open, total 2.5 holding firm despite slight Over juice amid public action on home side

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Diego FC | 52.3% |
| Win % for Vancouver Whitecaps | 21.7% |
| Draw % | 26.0% |
| Spread Cover % for San Diego (-0.5) | 52.3% |
| Over/Under Probability (2.5) | Over: 58.1% / Under: 41.9% |
| Average Total Goals | 3.40 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, +2.8] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on San Diego FC ML; simulation win probability surpasses implied odds, supported by home xG edge (1.8 per game recent) and Vancouver’s road draw tendency

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors San Diego FC at 68%, but money distribution at 58% shows some divergence, potentially indicating sharp action on Vancouver; however, simulation and xG metrics align with the home side for positive EV without needing a full public fade. Vancouver’s road form suggests draw risk, but San Diego’s home dominance tips the scale. Overall game projects moderately high-scoring at 3.4 goals average, favoring Over 2.5 based on recent offensive trends and defensive lapses.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with San Diego FC — simulation and home metrics confirm the highest mathematical probability despite slight money divergence.

Highlights unavailable.