Seattle Kraken vs Winnipeg Jets

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-13 10:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-13 11:27 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Seattle Kraken / +1.5 / -205 / 65% / Kraken’s strong home defense and Jets’ recent road fatigue create value in covering the puck line, supported by simulation cover rate and Jets allowing 2.8 goals per game away.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 5.5 at -120 / 52% / Both teams average 3.1 goals combined in recent matchups, with Kraken’s pace pushing totals higher despite solid goalies; average simulated goals at 5.8 favors the over slightly.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Winnipeg Jets / Moneyline / -142 / 58% / Jets’ superior xGF (2.9 per 60) and Hellebuyck’s .925 save percentage give them the edge as road favorites, aligning with 57.5% win probability.]

Seattle Kraken vs Winnipeg Jets on 2025-11-13

Game Times

ET: 10:10 PM
CT: 9:10 PM
MT: 8:10 PM
PT: 7:10 PM
AKT: 6:10 PM
HST: 4:10 PM

💸 Public Bets

[38% Kraken / 62% Jets]

💰 Money Distribution

[45% Kraken / 55% Jets]

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Jets moneyline tightened from -135 to -149 with heavy public action on Winnipeg, but spread held steady at Kraken +1.5 (-200), indicating sharp money on the home cover despite public favoritism toward the Jets. Total steady at 5.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4.2% on Kraken +1.5, driven by reverse line movement against public bets and Jets’ 45% cover rate as -1.5 road favorites this season; over 5.5 holds +1.8% EV from offensive metrics.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Seattle Kraken | 42.5% |
| Win % for Winnipeg Jets | 57.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Seattle Kraken | 65.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Kyle Connor / Over 0.5 Assists / 0.5 at -120 / 72% / Connor’s 0.65 assists per game average and Jets’ top power-play efficiency (22%) against Kraken’s middling PK make this a high-probability setup, especially with Vilardi drawing coverage.

Player Prop #2: Mark Scheifele / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -234 / 78% / Scheifele’s 1.2 points per game pace and central role in Jets’ offense (55% Corsi share) exploit Kraken’s defensive vulnerabilities, hitting in 8 of last 10 games.

Player Prop #3: Vince Dunn / Over 1.5 Shots on Goal / 1.5 at -188 / 68% / Dunn’s 2.1 SOG average from the blue line, boosted by Kraken’s shot volume at home (32 per game), favors the over against Jets’ mid-tier shot suppression.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Jets on the moneyline, but divergent money distribution and steady spread lines suggest sharp action on the Kraken cover, creating value in fading the favorite. Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in xGA per 60, but recent trends (Kraken 3.2 goals allowed home, Jets 2.9 away) point to a moderate-scoring affair around 5.8 goals. Following the math on the puck line aligns with simulation edges over public hype on Winnipeg’s win streak.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Jets moneyline — Kraken +1.5 offers the strongest probability based on cover metrics and matchup fatigue.

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