Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-09 04:05 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 07:04 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Seattle Seahawks / Spread / -7 at -105 / 56% / Seahawks’ defense ranks top-5 in EPA allowed, exploiting Cardinals’ injury-depleted offense; simulation shows 56% cover rate with home-field edge.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 45.5 at -105 / 52% / Both teams average under 22 points scored recently, with Seahawks allowing 18.2 PPG; weather and injuries favor a grind-it-out affair below the line.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Seattle Seahawks / Moneyline / -340 / 68% / Dominant 6-2 record and +10 turnover margin in 2025 give clear edge over struggling Cardinals.]

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals on 2025-11-09

Game Times

ET: 4:05 PM
CT: 3:05 PM
MT: 2:05 PM
PT: 1:05 PM
AKT: 12:05 PM
HST: 10:05 AM

💸 Public Bets

[Seahawks 70% / Cardinals 30%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Seahawks 60% / Cardinals 40%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Seahawks -6.5 and ticked to -7 amid balanced action, with slight sharp lean on home side despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Seahawks spread; implied probability undervalues simulation’s 68% win chance, supported by current-season EPA metrics and injury impacts.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Seattle Seahawks | 68% |
| Win % for Arizona Cardinals | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Seattle Seahawks | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 44.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, +2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Kenneth Walker III / Over Rushing Yards / 70.5 at -110 / 65% / Walker averages 85 yards per game in 2025 with 65% success rate; Cardinals rank 28th in run defense EPA, boosting volume in home matchup.
Player Prop #2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba / Over Receptions / 5.5 at -115 / 70% / Leads NFL with 819 receiving yards on 6.2 catches per game; Arizona’s secondary weakened by injuries allows 7.1 receptions to slot WRs.
Player Prop #3: Trey McBride / Over Receiving Yards / 50.5 at -110 / 60% / McBride hits 55+ yards in 7 of 8 games; Seahawks’ depleted DBs (Love, Jobe out) rank 22nd in TE coverage efficiency.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Seahawks, aligning with money distribution and sharp action on the spread, making a follow strategy optimal amid convergent metrics. Cardinals’ key absences like potential Conner limitations and secondary depth issues tilt the scales further. Overall game scoring projects low due to Seattle’s top-10 defense and Arizona’s inefficient offense (19.5 PPG allowed), supporting the under.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Seahawks] — simulation and market data confirm the highest probability on the home favorite.

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