Seattle vs UTEP

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-07 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 09:39 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Seattle / Spread / +3 at -110 / 52% / UTEP favored but simulation shows close margin with home advantage for Seattle, supported by recent form where Seattle covers in 60% of home games]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams average high tempo (71-72 possessions), offensive efficiencies suggest combined scoring above line, recent games average 142 points]

💰 Best Bet #3 [UTEP / Moneyline / -150 / 58% / UTEP’s stronger record (5-2 vs 3-5) and better adjusted efficiency give them edge despite road game]

Seattle vs UTEP on 2025-12-07

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[35% / 65%]

💰 Money Distribution

[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at UTEP -2.5 and moved to -3 with balanced action, no significant RLM observed.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on UTEP spread / Consensus metrics and simulation align with market, positive EV from UTEP’s defensive edge against Seattle’s offense]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Seattle | 42.5% |
| Win % for UTEP | 56.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Seattle | 48.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.3% / Under: 47.7% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 140.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15.2, 12.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Cameron Tyson / Over Points / 15.5 at -115 / 72% / Tyson’s usage rate 28% and averages 17.2 PPG in recent starts, UTEP allows 16.8 to guards
Player Prop #2: Tae Hardy / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 68% / Hardy leads UTEP scoring at 15.1 PPG, Seattle’s perimeter D ranks bottom-150, allowing 15+ in 4/5 games
Player Prop #3: Kasheem Keita / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -120 / 70% / Keita’s 9.2 RPG vs Seattle’s weak interior (allow 38 RPG), high rebounding % in matchups

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward UTEP with 65% of bets, aligning with money distribution at 55% on the favorite, indicating no sharp resistance and supporting a follow strategy. UTEP’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (108.0) and recent form (5-2) outweigh Seattle’s home advantage, projecting a moderate-scoring affair around 141 total points. No major injuries impact key players, maintaining the model’s confidence in the edges.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with UTEP / Mathematical alignment confirms value on the favorite’s spread and moneyline]

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