Siena Saints vs Bryant Bulldogs

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 06:39 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Siena Saints / Spread / -10 at -107 / 61% Confidence
Siena’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (108) against Bryant’s weaker defense (110), combined with home advantage and recent form, projects a comfortable cover in 61% of simulations.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 151.5 at -110 / 63% Confidence
Both teams exhibit high-tempo play (Siena 72, Bryant 68 possessions) and middling defensive rebounding rates, leading to an average simulated total of 157.6 points, favoring the over based on offensive metrics and last five games averaging 160 combined.

💰 Best Bet #3 Siena Saints / Moneyline / -500 / 81% Confidence
Model estimates 80.5% win probability for Siena, exceeding the implied 83% from odds but supported by return of key starters and Bryant’s reliance on freshmen, creating positive EV alignment.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Siena Saints | 80.5% |
| Win % for Bryant Bulldogs | 19.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Siena Saints (-10) | 61.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 62.9% / Under: 37.1% |
| Average Total Points | 157.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19.0, 48.0] |

Siena Saints vs Bryant Bulldogs on 2025-11-03

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Siena Saints 72% / Bryant Bulldogs 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Siena Saints 85% / Bryant Bulldogs 15%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Siena -8.5 across major books; moved to -10 by tip-off on BetOnline and BetRivers, with slight total creep from 150.5 to 151.5, indicating sharp action reinforcing the favorite despite heavy public backing.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.5% EV on Siena spread; simulation cover rate of 61.2% vs. -107 implied probability (51.7%) creates value, bolstered by Siena’s home splits (9-5 last season) and Bryant’s road struggles. No clear edge on underdog sides.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Max Hrdina (Siena Saints) / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 68% Confidence
Hrdina averages 16.2 ppg with 55% eFG% in home games; Bryant’s defensive rebounding allows 38% opponent offensive boards, projecting 16+ points in high-usage role (28% usage rate).

Player Prop #2: Earl Timberlake (Bryant Bulldogs) / Under Points / 18.5 at -112 / 62% Confidence
Timberlake hits under in 7 of last 10 road games (avg 15.8 ppg); Siena’s perimeter D ranks top-150 in opponent 3P% (32%), limiting ISO scoring and projecting 16 points max.

Player Prop #3: Sean Jenkins (Siena Saints) / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -105 / 65% Confidence
Jenkins grabs 7.4 rpg overall, 8.1 at home; Bryant’s weak offensive rebounding (28%) forces more opportunities, with simulations showing Siena controlling boards in 70% of runs.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Siena, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement toward the favorite despite 72% public bets, confirming no contrarian fade opportunity—math supports following the consensus. Siena’s returning core (three efficient double-digit scorers) exploits Bryant’s freshman-heavy roster and poor havoc rate, projecting a decisive home win. Overall scoring outlook is elevated, with both offenses efficient against leaky defenses and tempo favoring overs at 63% probability.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Siena Saints — simulation and market data converge on 80%+ win probability, with positive EV on the spread as the optimal edge.

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