NCAAB
South Carolina St vs 
Morgan State
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 6:00 PM ET • 5:00 PM CT • 4:00 PM MT • 3:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 08:15 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 South Carolina St / -1.5 / -105 / 53% / Simulation shows 51% home cover rate aligning with slight money steam (56%) despite even public split; recent form supports narrow home edge.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 156.5 / -110 / 58% / Both teams’ recent games average 152 combined points with defensive vulnerabilities but low offensive outputs (SC St 63 PPG scored, Morgan St 75); money 56% Under confirms value.
💰 Best Bet #3 South Carolina St / Moneyline / -122 / 55% / Home win probability 55% per 10k sims matches implied odds closely, backed by public/money lean and home-field metrics.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Carolina St Bulldogs | 54.9% |
| Win % for Morgan St Bears | 45.1% |
| Spread Cover % for South Carolina St Bulldogs | 51.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42.3% / Under: 57.7% |
| Average Total Points | 154.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-29.7, 33.3] |
🏀 Matchup: South Carolina St Bulldogs vs Morgan St Bears
💸 Public Bets
[51% / 49%]
💰 Money Distribution
[56% / 44%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books; no RLM evident from tier1 sources.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Under 156.5 (sim Under prob exceeds implied by 5.3%); +1.2% on home -1.5 with money convergence.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Drekel Brown (South Carolina St) / Over 13.5 Points / -110 / 71% / Leads team scoring in recent outings (avg 15.2 last 3), exploits Morgan’s weak perimeter D allowing 82 PPG.
Player Prop #2: Will Bergmann (Morgan St) / Over 11.5 Rebounds / -112 / 69% / Dominant board presence (avg 12.3 recent), SC St yields high rebound rates in losses.
**Player Prop #3: P.J. Jenkins (South Carolina St) / Over 4.5 Assists / +100 / 67% / Primary playmaker with elevated usage at home, Morgan allows 18 APG to guards.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money percentages show mild alignment on the home side for spread and ML, with simulation probabilities confirming a close but favorable home lean—optimal to follow rather than fade. Both teams exhibit poor recent offensive efficiency (SC St 63 PPG scored, Morgan St allowing 82), projecting a sub-line total despite leaky defenses. No major injuries reported, rest even, supporting Under as top edge.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with South Carolina St — sim and market consensus point to home win/cover value.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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