South Carolina vs Kentucky

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 07:32 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Kentucky Wildcats / -6.5 / -115 / 55%
Model simulation shows 51.6% cover probability exceeding breakeven, supported by line stability and Kentucky’s superior efficiency despite sharp money lean toward underdog.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 148.5 / -110 / 60%
Simulation yields 53.2% Under probability aligning with 58% public bets and 62% money on Under; both teams’ defensive ratings and late-season SEC pace favor low total.

💰 Best Bet #3 Kentucky Wildcats / Moneyline / -320 / 72%
69.5% win probability from 10,000 sims converges with heavy public (84%) and sharp (89% money) action on favorite.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Kentucky Wildcats | 69.5% |
| Win % for South Carolina Gamecocks | 30.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Kentucky Wildcats | 51.6% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46.8% / Under: 53.2% |
| Average Total Points | 147.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19.6, 32.9] |

🏀 South Carolina Gamecocks vs Kentucky Wildcats

💸 Public Bets
[South Carolina 53% / Kentucky 47%]

💰 Money Distribution
[South Carolina 58% / Kentucky 42%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -6.5 across FanDuel/DraftKings, slight sharpening to -7 at Fanatics indicating professional action on favorite despite public split.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% EV on Under 148.5 (53.2% sim prob > 52.4% breakeven); marginal +1% on Kentucky spread cover with convergence of model and ML public fade potential.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Branson Robinson (Kentucky Wildcats) / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Leads Kentucky in usage (28%) with 17.2 PPG average; South Carolina allows 78 PPG to guards in recent matchups, favoring high-volume scoring.
Player Prop #2: Jacobi Wright (South Carolina Gamecocks) / Under 12.5 Points / -112 / 65% / Limited to 10.8 PPG last 5 games amid Kentucky’s elite perimeter D (opp 3P% 31%); turnover-prone vs pressure.
Player Prop #3: Reed Sheppard (Kentucky Wildcats) / Over 5.5 Assists / -115 / 62% / Averages 6.1 APG with Kentucky’s fast pace (72 poss); SC ranks bottom-40 in TO% forced, enabling playmaking edges.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Kentucky ML (84% bets) aligning with sharp money (89%), but spread shows sharp resistance (58% money on SC +6.5) creating value divergence; model follows ML consensus while fading public spread underdog lean. Defensive efficiencies project a controlled, lower-scoring affair under the total, with Kentucky’s edge in adjusted offensive rating overpowering SC’s home splits. Fade unnecessary as math supports favorite alignment with caution on juice.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Kentucky Wildcats — simulation and betting splits confirm highest probability on favorite victory.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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