South Florida vs Charleston

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-10 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-10 10:34 AM EST

South Florida vs Charleston on 2025-12-10

💰 Best Bet #1 [South Florida / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 56% / South Florida holds a strong home advantage with superior adjusted offensive efficiency and recent form against similar opponents, covering in 56% of simulations despite Charleston’s defensive rebounding edge.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 59% / Both teams exhibit moderate tempos and solid defensive ratings this season, with injuries limiting scoring potential; average simulated total of 138.7 points supports under hitting 59% of the time.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [South Florida / Moneyline / -185 / 64% / Simulations project a 64% win probability for South Florida, backed by better overall efficiency metrics and home-court factor, offering value against Charleston’s road struggles.]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[62% South Florida / 38% Charleston]

💰 Money Distribution

[58% South Florida / 42% Charleston]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Spread opened at -4 and held steady at -4.5 with minimal movement, indicating balanced action despite public lean toward home team.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.8% on South Florida spread; implied probability from odds undervalues the 56% cover rate from current season metrics and simulations, creating positive EV without contrarian signals.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Florida | 64% |
| Win % for Charleston | 36% |
| Spread Cover % for South Florida (-4.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41% / Under: 59% |
| Average Total Points | 138.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, +12.4] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward South Florida, aligning with sharp money distribution and no significant reverse line movement, making following the home team the optimal mathematical play. Charleston’s recent road games show vulnerability in turnover percentage, bolstering South Florida’s edge without needing a fade. Overall game scoring outlook points to a controlled pace, with defensive efficiencies suggesting a lower total than average NCAAB outputs this season.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with South Florida] — simulations and market consensus confirm the highest probability of success on the home side.

Highlights unavailable.