South Florida vs UAB

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-04 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-04 10:50 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 South Florida / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 55% / South Florida’s strong home efficiency (adj O 110, D 98) and UAB’s road struggles give them a clear edge, supported by line stability despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 163.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defensive metrics (South Florida allows 72 PPG at home, UAB 75 on road) and slower tempo (68-70) point to a controlled, lower-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 South Florida / Moneyline / -280 / 68% / Home advantage and superior recent form (6-2 last 8) make South Florida the reliable favorite against an inconsistent UAB squad.

South Florida vs UAB on 2026-01-04

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
South Florida 65% / UAB 35%

💰 Money Distribution
South Florida 55% / UAB 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -6.5 for South Florida; opened -6 and held firm with balanced action, no significant RLM.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on South Florida spread; implied prob 52.4% vs. estimated true prob 55%, driven by efficiency differentials and home splits.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Florida | 68% |
| Win % for UAB | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for South Florida | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 158 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 22] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Kobe Dozier / Over Points / 15.5 at -115 / 72% / Dozier averages 17.2 PPG in home games with high usage (28%), facing UAB’s weak perimeter D allowing 38% from three.

Player Prop #2: Yaxel Lendeborg / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 68% / Lendeborg grabs 9.1 RPG overall, boosted by South Florida’s average rebounding defense (32% opp reb rate) and his dominance in the paint.

Player Prop #3: Selton Miguel / Under Assists / 3.5 at -105 / 65% / Miguel’s 2.8 APG in conference play drops against South Florida’s stout guard defense (top-100 in assists allowed per game).

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward South Florida, aligning with sharp money distribution and no reverse line movement, making following the favorite the optimal path based on efficiency edges and home performance. UAB’s road inefficiencies (3-5 away, 68 PPG) temper upset potential. Overall scoring outlook favors the under, as both squads prioritize defense in AAC matchups, with recent games averaging 152 combined points.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with South Florida — mathematical probabilities and market consensus confirm the home team’s edge.

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