Southeast Missouri State vs UT Martin

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-20 08:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-20 11:24 AM EST

Southeast Missouri State vs UT Martin on 2026-01-20

💰 Best Bet #1 Southeast Missouri State / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 52% / Home-court edge at Show Me Center combined with UT Martin’s road struggles supports covering the small spread, aligning with simulation cover probability.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defensive efficiencies and recent low-scoring trends in OVC play point to a grind-it-out game under the total, backed by average simulated points of 142.

💰 Best Bet #3 Southeast Missouri State / Moneyline / -140 / 55% / Stronger overall form and home advantage give SEMO the edge in win probability over the visiting Skyhawks.

Game Times

ET: 6:15 PM
CT: 5:15 PM
MT: 4:15 PM
PT: 3:15 PM
AKT: 2:15 PM
HST: 12:15 PM

Public Bets

Southeast Missouri State 62% / UT Martin 38%

💸 Money Distribution

Southeast Missouri State 55% / UT Martin 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at SEMO -3 and ticked to -2.5 amid some sharp action on the home team, despite public leaning favorite—indicating potential value on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on SEMO spread; public overbetting the favorite creates value, confirmed by RLM and simulation metrics showing 52% cover rate against implied 52.4% odds probability.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Southeast Missouri State | 55% |
| Win % for UT Martin | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Southeast Missouri State | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 142 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 18] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors SEMO but money distribution shows divergence with sharper plays on the home team, supporting a follow on the favorite rather than a fade. Both squads rank mid-tier in OVC defensive efficiency, suggesting a controlled pace and lower total. Overall, the matchup tilts toward SEMO covering at home without explosive scoring.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Southeast Missouri State — simulation and market edges confirm the home team’s higher win probability.

Highlights unavailable.