Southern Illinois vs Northern Iowa

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-28 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-28 08:58 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Southern Illinois / -3.5 / -110 / 70% / Simulation shows 69.7% cover rate with superior adjusted defensive efficiency and home advantage outweighing UNI’s recent form.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 138.5 / -110 / 56% / Average simulated total at 135.8 points aligns with both teams’ moderate tempos and defensive metrics favoring lower scoring.

💰 Best Bet #3 Southern Illinois / Moneyline / -155 / 62% / 62.3% win probability exceeds implied odds, driven by home-field edge and efficiency edges.

Southern Illinois vs Northern Iowa on 2026-01-28

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
68% / 32%

💰 Money Distribution
55% / 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -3.5; no major shifts despite public lean toward home team

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+12% on SIU -3.5 (sim prob 69.7% vs. -110 implied 52.4%); positive EV from defensive matchup and home adv

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Southern Illinois | 62.3% |
| Win % for Northern Iowa | 35.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Southern Illinois | 69.7% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44.2% / Under: 55.8% |
| Average Total Points | 135.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-30, 42] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Southern Illinois but money shows divergence toward UNI, suggesting possible sharp action on underdog; however, simulation and efficiency metrics confirm value on home side without forcing a fade. Overall game outlook projects moderate scoring with unders favored due to defensive efficiencies and sub-league-average tempos. Contrarian lean justified by sim edge despite public majority.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Southern Illinois — simulation and EV confirm highest probability.

Highlights unavailable.