St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Siena Saints

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-12 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:21 PM EST

St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Siena Saints on 2025-11-12

💰 Best Bet #1 [St. Bonaventure Bonnies / Spread / -9.5 at -108 / 58% / Bonnies hold strong home advantage with superior efficiency ratings in current season, covering in 55% of simulations against weaker opponents like Siena.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 139.5 at -108 / 54% / Both teams show defensive rebounding edges and lower tempo in recent form, with simulation projecting average total of 140.8 but under probability at 52% due to matchup slowdown.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [St. Bonaventure Bonnies / Moneyline / -455 / 73% / Bonnies win 72.5% in simulations, backed by better adjusted offensive efficiency and Siena’s poor road splits this season.]

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[75% / 25%]

💰 Money Distribution
[65% / 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at -9.5; opened -9 and held firm despite moderate public action on favorite]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Bonnies spread; implied probability undervalues simulation win/cover rates with no major injuries impacting key players]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 72.50% |
| Win % for Siena Saints | 27.50% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 55.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.00% / Under: 52.00% |
| Average Total Points | 140.80 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.50, 28.30] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors St. Bonaventure, aligning with money distribution and sharp action indicators, making a follow strategy optimal as EV supports the favorite without reverse line movement. Siena’s recent form shows vulnerability on the road, while Bonnies’ defensive metrics limit high-scoring outputs. Overall game outlook leans toward moderate scoring, with under favored slightly due to both teams’ rebounding and turnover control.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with St. Bonaventure] — simulation and market consensus point to strong win probability.

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