St. Bonaventure vs Fordham

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 11:47 AM EST

St. Bonaventure vs Fordham on 2026-01-10

💰 Best Bet #1 St. Bonaventure / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 55% / St. Bonaventure’s strong home form and Fordham’s recent conference struggles provide a solid edge, with simulation showing a narrow cover probability despite public backing the favorite.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit defensive tendencies in A-10 play, with average scoring aligning below the line based on recent efficiency metrics and injuries limiting Fordham’s offense.
💰 Best Bet #3 St. Bonaventure / Moneyline / -450 / 70% / Home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency ratings favor St. Bonaventure heavily, supported by their unbeaten streak against Fordham in recent matchups.

Game Times

ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[70% / 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[80% / 20%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -8.5 and moved to -9.5 to -10.5 amid steady action on the favorite, indicating no significant reverse movement.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on St. Bonaventure spread / Consensus from efficiency ratings and home splits shows value despite public lean, with EV boosted by Fordham’s injury impacts.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Bonaventure | 70.12% |
| Win % for Fordham | 29.88% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Bonaventure (-9.5) | 52.34% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.67% / Under: 51.33% |
| Average Total Points | 142.89 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-24.56, 35.21] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors St. Bonaventure, aligning with sharp money and mathematical projections from adjusted efficiencies and recent form, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Fordham’s multiple key absences further tilt the matchup, reducing their scoring potential. Overall game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring affair given both teams’ defensive rebounding rates and A-10 pace trends.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with St. Bonaventure — superior metrics and injury advantages confirm the highest probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.