NCAAB
St. Bonaventure vs 
Rhode Island
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 5:00 PM ET • 4:00 PM CT • 3:00 PM MT • 2:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 07:44 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 St. Bonaventure Bonnies / -2.5 / -115 / 57%
Home team shows strong recent form with wins in last 3, averaging 78 PPG at home; simulation projects 56% cover rate with public/money alignment (52%/57% on home).
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 145 at -110 / 55%
Combined recent game totals average ~147 but defensive averages (St. Bon 69 allowed, RI ~70) and public lean under (54%/58%) suggest low-scoring affair; sim avg total 145.
💰 Best Bet #3 St. Bonaventure Bonnies / Moneyline / -145 / 62%
Model win probability 59% exceeds implied ~59% breakeven, supported by home advantage and aligned betting action.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 59% |
| Win % for Rhode Island Rams | 40% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 145 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19.2, 23.8] |
🏀 Matchup: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Rhode Island Rams
💸 Public Bets
[St. Bonaventure 52% / Rhode Island 48%]
💰 Money Distribution
[St. Bonaventure 57% / Rhode Island 43%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable line at -2.5 / 144.5-145; no significant RLM observed.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on St. Bonaventure spread (model cover 56% vs implied 53.5%); positive EV on home side with consensus support.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Daryl Banks / Over 17.5 Points / -110 / 72% / St. Bonaventure guard averages 18+ recently in wins, favorable matchup vs Rhode Island perimeter D allowing high efficiency.
Player Prop #2: Luis Cortinas / Over 5.5 Assists / -112 / 68% / Rhode Island lead guard dishes 6+ in recent victories, St. Bonaventure allows assists to PGs in home games.
Player Prop #3: Kyle Lofton / Over 12.5 Points / -108 / 70% / Key St. Bonaventure scorer hits 13+ in last 3, exploits RI away defensive lapses per recent trends.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on St. Bonaventure, supporting follow strategy over fade; recent form favors home edge without major injuries noted. Game projects low-to-mid scoring with strong defenses converging on under total. Overall, market efficiency high with no contrarian signals.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with St. Bonaventure — highest probability backed by sim, action, and form.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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