NCAAB

St. Francis (PA) vs Wagner

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 08:11 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 St. Francis (PA) Red Flash / +1.5 / -110 / 55%
Home underdog shows value against public-heavy favorite in low-volume matchup; sim cover rate exceeds implied prob with home-court edge.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 151.5 at -105 / 53%
Both teams project low-efficiency offense per avg totals; recent trends and money % favor under in defensive NEC battle.

💰 Best Bet #3 St. Francis (PA) Red Flash / Moneyline / +110 / 48%
Model win prob beats implied break-even; contrarian play fading aligned public/money on road chalk.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Francis (PA) Red Flash | 48% |
| Win % for Wagner Seahawks | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Francis (PA) Red Flash (+1.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 151.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14, 12] |

🏀 Matchup: St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs Wagner Seahawks
💸 Public Bets
42% / 58%
💰 Money Distribution
37% / 63%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
No data available
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on St. Francis +1.5 (model 55% cover vs 52.4% implied); positive EV from sim convergence despite public lean.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distribution both heavily favor Wagner, indicating market consensus on the road favorite, but low book count suggests limited sharp action. Mathematical sim reveals edge on home dog cover and under total, as efficiencies project modest scoring below line. Fade optimal here with home advantage outweighing public sentiment in even matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Wagner — St. Francis +1.5 holds strongest probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.