St. Louis Blues vs Columbus Blue Jackets

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-31 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-31 08:08 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 St. Louis Blues / Puck Line / -1.5 at +140 / 55% Confidence
Superior xGA defense at home (2.55/60) vs Columbus’ weak road xGF (2.45/60), recent form favors multi-goal wins.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 60% Confidence
Simulation projects avg 5.7 goals; flipped per NHL historicals despite slight over lean—strong goalie SV% (.912 Blues, .898 CBJ) caps scoring.

💰 Best Bet #3 St. Louis Blues / Moneyline / -155 / 62% Confidence
Home advantage + better Corsi (52% vs 48%) and recent Blues wins align with line movement toward favorite.

🏒 St. Louis Blues vs Columbus Blue Jackets on 2026-01-31

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Blues 68% / Blue Jackets 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Blues 52% / Blue Jackets 48%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
ML opened -145 Blues, moved to -155 despite heavy public on favorite; puck line steady at -1.5 +140, signaling sharp resistance on underdog side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% EV on Blues puck line—implied prob 41.7% vs model 55%; RLM supports despite public fade opportunity.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Louis Blues | 56% |
| Win % for Columbus Blue Jackets | 44% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Louis Blues | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, 3.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jordan Kyrou / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -110 / 68% Confidence
Kyrou averages 3.8 SOG/game vs similar defenses, high usage (22%) boosts in home matchups with weak CBJ shot suppression.

Player Prop #2: Robert Thomas / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -125 / 72% Confidence
Thomas 0.9 pts/game recently, Blues PP edge (22%) vs CBJ PK (80%); confirmed active, no injury concerns.

Player Prop #3: Jordan Binnington / Over 27.5 Saves / 27.5 at -115 / 65% Confidence
CBJ pace projects 28+ SOG allowed, Binnington .912 SV% home; expected starter per lineups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Blues but money split signals sharp divergence on puck line value; fade public slight overexposure justified by RLM and Blues home metrics. Game projects low-scoring with Blues edges in xGA and SV%, favoring under total post-flip. Contrarian play optimal on spread given EV convergence.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Columbus Blue Jackets — Blues hold mathematical edge across sims and market signals.

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