St. Louis Blues vs Utah Mammoth

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-29 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 12:18 PM EST

St. Louis Blues vs Utah Mammoth on 2025-11-29

💰 Best Bet #1 St. Louis Blues / Puck Line / -1.5 at +135 / 59% / Blues leverage home ice and Utah’s 0-5 road skid, with superior xG metrics in recent matchups

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 63% / Defensive trends and goalie edges point to low-scoring affair despite offensive flashes (flipped per NHL historical performance)

💰 Best Bet #3 St. Louis Blues / Moneyline / -148 / 61% / Blues’ recent form and Utah’s struggles yield clear home favorite value

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Blues 68% / Mammoth 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Blues 54% / Mammoth 46%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Blues ML opened -140, sharpened to -148 amid Utah road woes; puck line steady at -1.5 +135

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.1% on Blues puck line — RLM supports home side despite public lean, backed by Utah’s poor away xGA/60

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Louis Blues | 58% |
| Win % for Utah Mammoth | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Louis Blues | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, +2.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Dylan Guenther / Over 0.5 Points / -125 / 72% / Guenther thrives vs Blues D (3 pts last matchup), high usage on Utah’s top line
Player Prop #2: Robert Thomas / Over 0.5 Points / -140 / 68% / Blues C leads in assists, faces Utah’s weak PK (78% season)
Player Prop #3: Jordan Kyrou / Over 2.5 Shots / +110 / 65% / Kyrou averages 3.4 SOG vs bottom-10 defenses like Utah

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public favors Blues but money split signals sharp balance on home side; follow Blues edges as Utah’s road futility (0-5) and Blues’ home xGF advantage converge with RLM. Game projects low-scoring with Blues GA/60 under league avg vs Utah’s sluggish offense. Fade Utah entirely given metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Blues — highest EV on home moneyline and puck line per sim and market data.

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