St. Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-15 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-15 06:11 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [St. Louis Blues / Spread / +1.5 at -140 / 62% / Blues cover in close matchup per simulation, with recent home form showing resilience against favored road teams despite Vegas’s edge in xGF.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated goals at 5.9 align closely with line, supported by both teams’ recent games averaging over 5.5 goals combined amid defensive injuries.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Vegas Golden Knights / Moneyline / -162 / 58% / Slight simulation edge for Vegas win probability, bolstered by strong road record (7-4-5) and key forwards like Eichel driving offense.]

St. Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights on 2025-11-15

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[38% / 62%]

💰 Money Distribution

[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Vegas -1.5 (+130) and moved to -1.5 (+120), with moneyline steady at -162 despite moderate public backing on Vegas, indicating some sharp action on Blues cover.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Blues +1.5, driven by simulation cover rate exceeding implied odds probability (55%) and reverse line movement suggesting value against public favorite lean.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Louis Blues | 42% |
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Louis Blues | 62% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jack Eichel / Over Points / 0.5 at -120 / 68% / Eichel’s 1.2 points per game average in current season, high usage on top line vs Blues’ weakened defense (Neighbours out), projecting multi-point potential in even matchup.

Player Prop #2: Pavel Buchnevich / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -115 / 65% / Buchnevich averaging 3.1 SOG recently at home, faces Vegas backup goalie amid Hill’s injury, with Blues’ possession edge (51% Corsi) favoring shot volume.

Player Prop #3: Jordan Kyrou / Over Points / 0.5 at +105 / 55% / Kyrou’s speed exploits Vegas’s road fatigue (back-to-back travel), 0.9 PPG form vs similar opponents, value in plus-money amid Karlsson’s absence impacting defense.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Vegas as the road favorite, but divergent money distribution and slight reverse line movement point to sharp resistance, making a fade on the public optimal for the Blues spread with positive EV. Both teams show middling defensive metrics (Blues allowing 3.2 GA/game, Vegas 2.9), but injuries like Vegas’s Stone and Karlsson tilt toward a higher-scoring affair over the total. Overall, the matchup projects as competitive with Blues holding home-ice value against a streaky Knights squad.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on St. Louis Blues — simulation and market signals confirm the cover as the highest-probability edge in this tight contest.

Highlights unavailable.