Stanford Cardinal vs Portland St Vikings

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-04 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-04 05:17 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Stanford Cardinal / Spread / -10.5 at -115 / 68% / Stanford’s superior efficiency ratings and home-court dominance at Maples Pavilion project a strong cover, aligning with simulation’s 67.8% cover rate against a rebuilding Portland State squad.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 145 at -110 / 52% / Both teams emphasize defensive rebounding and low turnover rates in early-season play, with simulated average of 143 points suggesting a controlled, lower-scoring affair despite neutral pace.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Stanford Cardinal / Moneyline / -650 / 87% / Overwhelming win probability from advanced metrics like adjusted offensive efficiency and Portland State’s poor road performance in recent exhibitions.]

Stanford Cardinal vs Portland St Vikings on 2025-11-04

Game Times

ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[78% Stanford Cardinal / 22% Portland St Vikings]

💰 Money Distribution

[85% Stanford Cardinal / 15% Portland St Vikings]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -9.5 and steadied at -10.5 with heavy action on Stanford, showing no significant reverse movement despite public favoritism toward the home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Stanford spread / Simulation cover rate exceeds implied odds probability, bolstered by Stanford’s home efficiency edge and Portland State’s subpar defensive rebounding in preseason metrics.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Stanford Cardinal | 87.3% |
| Win % for Portland St Vikings | 12.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Stanford Cardinal | 67.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 50.4% / Under: 49.6% |
| Average Total Points | 143.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 48.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Maxime Raynaud / Over Points / 19.5 at -110 / 72% / Raynaud’s high usage rate (28%) and Portland State’s weak interior defense (allowing 42% opponent 2PT in exhibitions) support exceeding his average of 18.2 points from prior season trends.
Player Prop #2: Isaiah Johnson / Under Rebounds / 8.5 at -105 / 65% / Johnson’s rebounding dips on the road against taller fronts like Stanford’s (top-150 defensive rebounding %), projecting under his 9.1 average amid limited possessions.
Player Prop #3: Benny Alofaina / Over Assists / 4.5 at -115 / 70% / Alofaina’s playmaking in transition (3.8 APG last season) exploits Portland State’s press turnover issues (18% rate), with Stanford’s pace favoring extra opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Stanford, aligning with sharp money indicators and market consensus, making a follow-the-public approach optimal given the home team’s superior adjusted efficiency (KenPom top-100) and Portland State’s rebuild status. No major injuries reported for either side in this season opener, reducing variance. Overall scoring outlook leans low, as both squads prioritize half-court defense and exhibit moderate tempos, projecting below the total line based on recent form and matchup dynamics.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Stanford Cardinal / Strong alignment across metrics confirms high-probability straight bet on the favorite.]

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