NCAAB
Stephen F. Austin vs 
New Orleans
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:30 PM ET • 6:30 PM CT • 5:30 PM MT • 4:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-23 07:28 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 New Orleans Privateers / +12.5 / -102 / 58% / Sharp money 59% on underdog spread vs split public bets, simulation shows 52% cover probability
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 149.5 at -105 / 56% / Money 59% and public leaning under, avg sim total 148.5 with defensive matchup trends
💰 Best Bet #3 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks / Moneyline / -1100 / 92% / Overwhelming sim win probability aligns with heavy public action
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 92% |
| Win % for New Orleans Privateers | 8% |
| Spread Cover % for Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 148.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 38] |
🏀 Matchup: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs New Orleans Privateers on 2026-02-24
💸 Public Bets
[46% / 54%]
💰 Money Distribution
[41% / 59%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
N/A – stable lines across books
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% EV on New Orleans +12.5; sharp money disparity vs public ML fade, simulation convergence supports cover despite favorite bias
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Josiah Holt (SFA) / Over Points / 17.5 at -110 / 74% / Averages 19.2 PPG in last 5 home games, favorable matchup vs New Orleans weak perimeter D allowing 22+ to guards
Player Prop #2: Matt Wells (SFA) / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -112 / 71% / 9.8 RPG recent, exploits UNO’s poor defensive rebounding (38% opp reb rate)
Player Prop #3: Caleb Barnes (New Orleans) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -108 / 68% / 5.4 APG vs similar defenses, high usage in loss scenarios with tempo push
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily backs SFA moneyline (91%) aligning with sim win odds, but spread shows divergence with money flowing to New Orleans +12.5 indicating sharp resistance to the large favorite line. Follow sharp action on underdog spread and under total as sim avg total under line and defensive efficiencies suggest low-scoring affair. No major injuries impact key rotation players.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on SFA moneyline — sharp money and sim metrics favor value on New Orleans spread cover.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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