Stony Brook vs Central Michigan

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 10:49 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Stony Brook / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 58% / Stony Brook’s strong home efficiency and 7-game home win streak provide a clear edge over Central Michigan’s poor road ATS record (1-4), aligning with simulation cover rate.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 51% / Both teams exhibit moderate tempos and defensive rebounding strengths in recent outings, with simulation averaging 146.2 points suggesting a low-scoring affair despite balanced offensive outputs.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Stony Brook / Moneyline / -350 / 72% / Home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency ratings favor Stony Brook heavily, as Central Michigan struggles against quality mid-majors on the road.]

Stony Brook vs Central Michigan on 2025-12-13

Game Times

ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[70% Stony Brook / 30% Central Michigan]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% Stony Brook / 40% Central Michigan]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -7.5 and moved to -8.5 with balanced action, indicating stability despite public lean toward home favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Stony Brook spread] — Positive EV derived from simulation cover rate exceeding implied odds probability, supported by home efficiency and opponent road ATS trends (Central Michigan 1-4 ATS away).

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Stony Brook | 72% |
| Win % for Central Michigan | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Stony Brook | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 146.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.1, -3.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Stony Brook, aligning with money distribution and sharp indicators, making a follow strategy optimal as the home team’s efficiency edges support the favorite without overvaluation. Central Michigan’s road struggles and turnover issues limit upset potential. Overall game scoring projects as moderate, with defensive metrics from both sides favoring a slight under lean based on recent form and pace adjustments.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Stony Brook] — Mathematical probability favors the home team given consensus alignment and simulation outcomes.

Highlights unavailable.