Stony Brook vs Columbia

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-09 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-09 09:54 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Stony Brook / +4.5 / -110 / 62% / Stony Brook’s home efficiency and defensive rebounding provide a cushion against Columbia’s offense, with simulation showing a 55% cover rate aligning with sharp resistance to the favorite.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 141.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams play at a moderate tempo with Columbia’s recent scoring trends and Stony Brook’s allowance of high points, pushing the average simulated total to 142.
💰 Best Bet #3 Columbia / Moneyline / -185 / 65% / Columbia’s superior adjusted efficiency (KenPom top-100) and undefeated road form give them a clear edge in win probability per simulations.

Stony Brook vs Columbia on 2025-12-09

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Columbia 65% / Stony Brook 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Columbia 58% / Stony Brook 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at Columbia -4 and has held steady at -4.5 despite moderate public action on the favorite, indicating balanced sharp money.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+2.5% on Stony Brook +4.5, driven by reverse line stability against public percentage and Columbia’s potential fatigue from recent schedule.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Stony Brook | 35.0% |
| Win % for Columbia | 65.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Stony Brook | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 142.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.0, 15.0] |

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Columbia with aligned money distribution, but mathematical edges favor the spread and total based on efficiency metrics and simulations. Follow the public on the moneyline while fading slightly on the spread for value, as Stony Brook’s home defense could keep it close. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with both offenses capable but defenses limiting explosive runs.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Columbia spread — Stony Brook +4.5 has the best mathematical probability of winning based on cover simulations and contextual home advantage.

Highlights unavailable.