Stony Brook vs Hofstra

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-15 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-15 10:45 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Stony Brook / Spread / +2.5 at -110 / 55% / Stony Brook’s recent form and home advantage provide value against the spread, with simulation showing a solid cover probability despite Hofstra’s edge.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 134.5 at -110 / 60% / Both teams exhibit defensive efficiencies that suggest a lower-scoring affair, aligning with recent trends and matchup pace.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Hofstra / Moneyline / -140 / 58% / Hofstra’s superior record and efficiency metrics give them the outright win probability, though the line offers some value.]

Stony Brook vs Hofstra on 2026-01-15

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Hofstra 62% / Stony Brook 38%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Hofstra 55% / Stony Brook 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at Hofstra -3 and has moved to -2.5 with balanced action, indicating stability despite public lean toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Stony Brook +2.5; simulation and efficiency metrics show undervaluation of the home underdog, supported by recent win streak.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Stony Brook | 42% |
| Win % for Hofstra | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Stony Brook (+2.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 38% / Under: 62% |
| Average Total Points | 132.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, +6] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Hofstra, aligning with money distribution and market consensus, but mathematical edges favor the underdog spread and under total due to Stony Brook’s home splits and both teams’ defensive rebounding rates. Fade elements of the public on the spread while following on the moneyline, as EV supports contrarian value without full reversal. Overall game scoring outlook points to under, with average projections below the line based on tempo and efficiency.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Stony Brook +2.5] — simulation and metrics indicate the highest probability for this cover.

Highlights unavailable.