Syracuse vs Tennessee

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-02 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 09:49 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Tennessee / -6.5 / -110 / 58% / Simulation shows 55% cover rate with Tennessee’s superior efficiency (KenPom top-20) vs Syracuse’s recent defensive lapses, supported by stable line despite home dog appeal.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 145.5 / -110 / 55% / Avg simulated total 139.2 aligns with both teams’ adjusted defensive ratings and slower tempos in non-con play, recent games trending under.
💰 Best Bet #3 Tennessee / Moneyline / -265 / 68% / 67% win probability from Monte Carlo, backed by No. 17 ranking, road strength, and Syracuse’s 1-3 vs ranked foes.

Syracuse vs Tennessee on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Tennessee 68% / Syracuse 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Tennessee 73% / Syracuse 27%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Tennessee -7, moved to -6.5 amid balanced action; no major RLM despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.8% on Tennessee -6.5 (model prob 57% vs implied 52%); positive EV from sim convergence and Tennessee’s edge in O/D eff.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Syracuse | 33% |
| Win % for Tennessee | 67% |
| Spread Cover % for Syracuse (+6.5) | 45% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 139.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.1, +4.3] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Tennessee, as money % exceeds public % on the favorite without reverse movement, confirming market consensus. Follow the public here with Tennessee, as sim and KenPom (78-71 pred) support the favorite amid Syracuse’s collapse vs Iowa St and Tennessee’s tournament toughness. Game outlook leans low-scoring with both defenses holding foes under 70 ppg recently.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Tennessee — highest probability backed by 67% win sim and contextual edges.

Highlights unavailable.