Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-30 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 09:51 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Spread / -3 at -110 / 57% / Simulation shows 55% cover rate with Bucs’ superior EPA and run defense exploiting Cardinals’ weaknesses, supported by home-field edge despite line movement.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 45.5 at -110 / 54% / Average simulated total of 45 aligns closely with line, but offensive metrics and recent trends favor slight over with Bucs’ pace and Cards’ vulnerability to pass attacks.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Moneyline / -155 / 62% / 62% win probability from Monte Carlo, bolstered by current season success rates and injury adjustments favoring home team.

🏈 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
68% Tampa Bay Buccaneers / 32% Arizona Cardinals

💰 Money Distribution
54% Tampa Bay Buccaneers / 46% Arizona Cardinals

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened Tampa Bay -5.5 to -6, moved to -3 despite heavy public on favorite; total dropped from 49.5 to 44.5-45.5 indicating sharp action on Cardinals and under.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 62% |
| Win % for Arizona Cardinals | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 45 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 18] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Buccaneers spread — Reverse line movement suggests sharp resistance to public favorite, but simulation and EPA metrics (Bucs top-10 run D vs Cards’ average rush) confirm positive EV despite Mayfield injury concerns.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Trey McBride / Over 59.5 Receiving Yards / -115 / 72% / Cardinals TE leads in targets (8th in rec yds allowed to TEs by Bucs this season); consistent 70% hit rate in recent games vs similar defenses.
Player Prop #2: Bucky Irving / Over 14.5 Rush Attempts / -110 / 68% / Bucs RB volume up with injury edges, Cardinals 24th in rush TDs allowed; 15.5 line juiced over in projections.
Player Prop #3: Jacoby Brissett / Over 225.5 Passing Yards / -105 / 65% / Bucs pass D vulnerable (attackable per trends), Brissett efficient in dropbacks vs top-10 rush Ds this season.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Buccaneers but money split with line movement toward Cardinals signals potential sharp play on underdog; however, simulation and current season metrics (Bucs’ red-zone efficiency, Cards’ turnover issues) favor home cover. Game projects moderate scoring with avg total 45, leaning over due to pace but weather neutral. Fade public justified by RLM but math edges Bucs.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread — Highest EV aligns with simulation despite public sentiment.

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