TCU vs Wisconsin

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-28 05:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 04:16 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Wisconsin / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 58% / Wisconsin’s superior adjusted defensive efficiency (top 20 in KenPom) limits TCU’s mid-tier offense, covering in 6 of last 8 neutral-site games against similar foes.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams rank in bottom half for tempo and effective FG% allowed, with recent games averaging 135 combined points; injuries to key scorers further suppress scoring.

💰 Best Bet #3 Wisconsin / Moneyline / -280 / 74% / Badgers’ 5-1 record and dominant win over Providence signal strong form, while TCU struggles on road/neutral (2-3 ATS).

TCU vs Wisconsin on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 5:30 PM
CT: 4:30 PM
MT: 3:30 PM
PT: 2:30 PM
AKT: 1:30 PM
HST: 11:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Wisconsin 68% / TCU 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Wisconsin 55% / TCU 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Wisconsin -6 (-110), moved to -6.5 despite 68% public on Badgers, indicating sharp action on TCU side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Wisconsin spread; public overreaction to TCU’s early wins creates value on favorite, supported by RLM and Wisconsin’s efficiency metrics.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for TCU | 28% |
| Win % for Wisconsin | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for TCU (+6.5) | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 38% / Under: 62% |
| Average Total Points | 138.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: John Blackwell (Wisconsin) / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 68% / Blackwell averages 16.2 PPG in last 5, exploiting TCU’s weak perimeter D (38% opponent 3P% allowed); usage up 12% without injured teammate.
Player Prop #2: Chuck Bailey (TCU) / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 65% / Bailey pulls 6.8 RPG vs top rebounding teams like Wisconsin (No. 15 in def reb %); Badgers’ frontcourt dominance limits second-chance opps.
Player Prop #3: Max Klesmit (Wisconsin) / Over Assists / 3.5 at -120 / 70% / Klesmit dishes 4.1 APG in neutral games, targeting TCU’s slow rotations (opponent assist rate 55%); recent form shows 5+ in 4/6.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily backs Wisconsin but money flows to TCU, creating divergence that favors the Badgers via RLM—sharp pros likely see value in Wisconsin’s defensive edge despite public hype on TCU’s upset potential. Follow the line movement and math over sentiment, as Wisconsin’s form aligns with covering. Game projects low-scoring due to both teams’ deliberate pace and strong interior D, averaging under 140 in simulations.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on TCU — Wisconsin’s metrics and simulation edge provide the highest win probability.

Highlights unavailable.