Tennessee State vs UT Martin

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-18 08:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-18 11:12 AM EST

Tennessee State vs UT Martin on 2025-12-18

💰 Best Bet #1 Tennessee State / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Tennessee State holds a strong home-court edge in the OVC, with recent defensive efficiency supporting a cover against UT Martin’s middling road offense.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank below average in pace and scoring this season, with injuries limiting key scorers and favoring a lower-output game.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tennessee State / Moneyline / -140 / 55% / Simulations show a clear edge for the home team based on current form and roster depth.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tennessee State | 55% |
| Win % for UT Martin | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Tennessee State | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 142 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 16] |

Game Times
ET: 08:30 PM
CT: 07:30 PM
MT: 06:30 PM
PT: 05:30 PM
AKT: 04:30 PM
HST: 02:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Tennessee State 60% / UT Martin 40%

💰 Money Distribution
Tennessee State 55% / UT Martin 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Tennessee State -3, moved to -2.5 with balanced action despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on the spread due to home efficiency metrics and slight RLM favoring the favorite.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Carlos Paez / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 65% / Paez averages 16.2 PPG in home games this season, exploiting UT Martin’s weak perimeter defense (allowing 38% from three).
Player Prop #2: Jaylen Jones / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 60% / Jones faces Tennessee State’s strong interior (top-150 defensive rebounding rate), limiting his opportunities below his 8.1 average.
Player Prop #3: ZaKhar Smith / Over Assists / 3.5 at -120 / 58% / Smith thrives in transition against slower defenses like UT Martin’s, averaging 4.2 APG in similar matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on the home favorite, supported by line stability and no major RLM signals, making following the public optimal here. Both defenses show solid metrics in the current season, pointing to a controlled, under-leaning total. Overall, the game projects as a moderate-scoring affair with Tennessee State controlling the pace.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Tennessee State — convergence of metrics and market data confirms the highest probability edge.

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