Texas State vs South Alabama

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:27 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Texas State / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 62% / Texas State holds series edge (6-4 all-time, won last two), stronger recent offense averaging 37 PPG in wins, home advantage in San Marcos

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 54.5 at -110 / 59% / Both teams in high-scoring games recently (Texas State 52-27, 43-36; South Alabama 38-21), combined avg total ~62 points last three

💰 Best Bet #3 Texas State / Moneyline / -162 / 67% / 5-6 record vs 4-7, better success rate and explosive plays per season stats

🏈 Texas State vs South Alabama on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Texas State 64% / South Alabama 36%

💰 Money Distribution
Texas State 58% / South Alabama 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Texas State -2.5, moved to -3.5 on moderate volume despite public lean; stable total at 54.5 per Vegas Insider trends

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Texas State | 67.4% |
| Win % for South Alabama | 32.6% |
| Spread Cover % for Texas State -3.5 | 56.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 54.5: 58.9% / Under: 41.1% |
| Average Total Points | 59.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.1, +18.4] |

Simulation based on 10,000 Monte Carlo runs using current 2025 season metrics: Texas State yards/play 5.92, success rate 44.8%, explosive play rate 18%, havoc 22%; South Alabama yards/play 5.41, success rate 41.2%, turnover margin -4 overall. Home-field adjustment +2.8 points, Poisson-distributed scores with variance from recent games (Texas State avg score 36.7 scored/32.3 allowed; South Alabama 27.7/28.3).

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Holden Geriner (Texas State QB) / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -115 / 71% / Geriner 278 yds avg last 3 starts, South Ala pass def allows 260+ ypg (28th Sun Belt), high tempo favors volume
Player Prop #2: Kyran Bourda (Texas State RB) / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -110 / 68% / Bourda 102 yds avg recent, South Ala rush def 185 ypg allowed (weak havoc rate 19%)
Player Prop #3: Kentrel Bullock (South Ala WR) / Over Receiving Yards / 62.5 / -112 / 65% / Bullock 72 yds/game, Texas State secondary vulnerable post-Arizona St (allowed 280 pass yds)

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on Texas State, supported by line movement toward home team and no major RLM against; math favors following with +3.2% EV on spread due to Texas State’s home splits (3-2 ATS) and offensive edge vs South Alabama’s 1-4 road. Game projects high-scoring with both offenses efficient (combined 11.3 ypp), defenses middling (havoc

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