Texas Tech vs BYU

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-12-06 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:10 AM EST

Texas Tech vs BYU on 2025-12-06

💰 Best Bet #1 Texas Tech / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 58% / Texas Tech’s dominant defense has held opponents to low scores recently, covering in 11 of 12 games this season, while BYU struggles against top units.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 49.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams feature strong defenses in recent matchups, with Texas Tech allowing just 16 points over last three games and BYU’s offense hampered by injuries, pointing to a controlled, low-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Texas Tech / Moneyline / -417 / 72% / Red Raiders’ superior form and home-like advantage in Arlington give them a clear edge over the Cougars in this rematch.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Texas Tech | 72.0% |
| Win % for BYU | 28.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Texas Tech (-13.5) | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 48.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 34.1] |

Game Times
ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
BYU 65% / Texas Tech 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Texas Tech 70% / BYU 30%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -11.5 and moved to -12.5 early, stabilizing there despite public leaning toward the underdog; sharp money pushed the slight adjustment favoring Texas Tech.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Texas Tech spread, driven by reverse line movement against public action and strong defensive metrics aligning with simulation outcomes.

Player Props Unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors BYU as the underdog, but sharp money and line stability indicate professional action on Texas Tech, creating value in fading the public where metrics support the favorite’s dominance. Both defenses rank highly in points allowed this season, suggesting a game under the total despite offensive potentials. Overall, the matchup tilts low-scoring with Texas Tech controlling the pace.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Texas Tech — mathematical probabilities and sharp alignment confirm the highest win chance for the Red Raiders.

Highlights unavailable.