Texas vs Texas A&M

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-28 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 06:30 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Texas / Spread / +2.5 at -110 / 60% / Texas shows strong home-field advantage and simulation edges in win probability, covering against an injury-hit A&M squad despite public favoritism toward the undefeated Aggies.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 52.5 at +104 / 55% / Both teams’ defenses rank highly in yards allowed per game this season, with recent trends showing lower-scoring outputs and an average simulated total below the line.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Texas / Moneyline / +129 / 58% / Simulation projects Texas with a clear edge in win probability, capitalizing on A&M’s key absences like Le’Veon Moss and negative turnover margin.]

Texas vs Texas A&M on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

Texas A&M 65% / Texas 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Texas A&M 70% / Texas 30%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Texas -3 but shifted to Texas A&M -2.5 amid heavy public and money action on the undefeated Aggies, indicating potential sharp resistance on the home underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Texas sides — Simulation and home metrics outweigh public hype on A&M, with positive EV from line value and injury impacts.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Arch Manning / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -115 / 70% / Manning’s efficiency against similar defenses averages 280+ yards in home games this season, boosted by A&M’s secondary injuries allowing more explosive plays.
Player Prop #2: CJ Baxter Jr. / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -110 / 65% / Baxter exploits A&M’s run defense weaknesses (4.8 YPC allowed recently), with high usage in favorable matchups and no major backfield competition.
Player Prop #3: Marcel Reed / Under Passing Yards / 210.5 / -105 / 68% / Reed’s low volume passing (under 200 in 4 of last 6) faces Texas’s top-ranked secondary, limiting opportunities amid A&M’s run-heavy scheme.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Texas | 58.0% |
| Win % for Texas A&M | 42.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Texas | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 51.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.1, 16.3] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the undefeated Texas A&M, but divergent money distribution and minimal line movement suggest sharp action on Texas as the home underdog. Following the simulation’s edge aligns with mathematical probability over hype, especially with A&M’s injuries to key players like Le’Veon Moss weakening their offense. The game outlook points to a defensive battle, with both teams’ units limiting explosive plays for a total likely under the line.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Texas A&M — Texas holds the best mathematical probability of winning, leveraging home advantage and A&M’s vulnerabilities.

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