NCAAB

Toledo vs Northern Illinois

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 07:37 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Northern Illinois Huskies / Spread / +11.5 at -102 / 55% / Sharp money 59% on dog with 54% bets despite heavy public ML on home, RLM from +12 to +11.5 signals value]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 150.5 at -110 / 52% / Public bets 57% and money 61% under aligned, sim avg total 150.4 supports slight edge]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Northern Illinois Huskies / Moneyline / +590 / 28% / Sim 25.1% win prob >> implied ~15%, massive +EV fading 88% public on heavy fave]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toledo Rockets | 74.9% |
| Win % for Northern Illinois Huskies | 25.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Toledo Rockets | 49.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 50.1% / Under: 49.9% |
| Average Total Points | 150.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-22.2, 44.9] |

🏀 Matchup: Toledo Rockets vs Northern Illinois Huskies on 2026-02-25
💸 Public Bets
[Toledo 46% / Northern Illinois 54%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Toledo 41% / Northern Illinois 59%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]
📉 Line Movement
[Opened +12 (NIU), moved to +11.5 despite 88% public bets on Toledo ML — RLM indicates sharp action on dog]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.5% on NIU +11.5; sim 50.2% cover > implied after vig adjustment, reinforced by money disparity and RLM]

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Javan Wright (Toledo) / Over Points / 16.5 at -110 / 75% / Team leader avg ~18 PPG high usage vs NIU weak defense allowing high-eff shots
Player Prop #2: David Coit (NIU) / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 70% / Primary scorer ~15.5 PPG, favorable matchup vs Toledo allowing guard scoring
Player Prop #3: Tyler Laud (Toledo) / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -112 / 68% / Strong rebounder ~8 RPG, NIU poor defensive rebounding rate

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Toledo ML (88% bets/93% money) but diverges on spread where money (59%) flows to NIU dog amid RLM tightening line toward underdog, signaling sharp resistance to fave. Sim confirms close cover (49.8% for Toledo) with value on NIU spread; follow sharp money over public. Overall game projects moderate scoring around 150 total with defensive edges supporting Under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Toledo / NIU +11.5 — best mathematical probability backed by sim, RLM, and money split.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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