Toledo vs Ohio

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-13 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 11:03 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Toledo / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Toledo’s home efficiency and recent form against MAC opponents provide a clear edge, with line movement supporting the favorite despite moderate public backing.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank below league average in tempo and offensive rebounding, with defensive metrics favoring a controlled, lower-scoring affair based on current season trends.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Toledo / Moneyline / -160 / 65% / Simulation and advanced efficiency ratings heavily favor Toledo at home, where they convert 64% of wins against similar spreads.]

Toledo vs Ohio on 2026-01-13

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[65% Toledo / 35% Ohio]

💰 Money Distribution

[55% Toledo / 45% Ohio]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Toledo -3 and moved to -3.5 with balanced action, indicating stability without sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Toledo spread] — Implied probability undervalues Toledo’s home-court dominance and Ohio’s road struggles, confirmed by season-long efficiency data.

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toledo | 64.3% |
| Win % for Ohio | 35.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Toledo | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 152.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19.8, 24.2] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Toledo but with money more evenly split, suggesting no major sharp divergence and alignment with mathematical projections. Following the public on the home favorite optimizes EV here, as contextual factors like Toledo’s superior adjusted efficiency reinforce the edge without contrarian signals. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with both defenses limiting explosive plays in recent MAC matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Toledo] — Highest probability stems from home advantage and simulation-backed win equity.

Highlights unavailable.