Toledo vs Troy

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-24 11:00 AM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-24 09:12 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Toledo / Spread / +4.5 at -110 / 55% / Toledo’s home advantage and recent form provide value against a road-weary Troy team, with simulations showing a strong cover probability.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit defensive tendencies in early-season games, with average totals trending below the line amid slower pace.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Troy / Moneyline / -190 / 52% / Troy’s slightly superior offensive efficiency edges out in projections, though low confidence due to travel factor.]

🏀 Matchup: Toledo vs Troy on 2025-11-24

Game Times

ET: 11:00 AM
CT: 10:00 AM
MT: 9:00 AM
PT: 8:00 AM
AKT: 7:00 AM
HST: 5:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[Troy 60% / Toledo 40%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Troy 45% / Toledo 55%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Troy -3.5 but moved to -4.5 despite public leaning on the favorite, suggesting sharp action on Toledo.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Toledo +4.5 / Divergent money flow and reverse line movement indicate value on the underdog, supported by home-court metrics and simulation edges.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toledo | 48% |
| Win % for Troy | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Toledo | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 150 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 13] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors Troy, but money distribution and line movement point to sharp support for Toledo, creating a contrarian opportunity with positive EV on the spread. Defensive efficiencies from both teams suggest a lower-scoring affair, aligning with under projections. Overall, fading the public on the spread offers the strongest mathematical edge in this matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Troy / No clear edge on moneyline] — Toledo’s cover probability provides the best value based on simulations and market signals.

Highlights unavailable.