Toronto Maple Leafs vs Los Angeles Kings

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-13 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-13 11:22 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Toronto Maple Leafs / Spread / +1.5 at -225 / 74% / Toronto’s defensive metrics (xGA/60 at 2.45 in recent games) and Kings’ road regression (Corsi% dipping to 48%) align with simulation’s high cover rate, amplified by Matthews’ absence forcing balanced lines without overexposure.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 6 at -110 / 54% / Both teams average 3.2 goals scored/allowed in last 5 (current season), with Kings’ PP at 22% vs. Toronto’s PK vulnerabilities (78% efficiency), pushing totals above line per pace-adjusted models.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Los Angeles Kings / Moneyline / -135 / 52% / Kings’ superior xGF (2.85/60) and recent form (4-1 last 5) hold edge despite public fade, with EV from sharp money inflow confirming value on road favorite.]

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Los Angeles Kings on 2025-11-13

Game Times

ET: 7:10 PM
CT: 6:10 PM
MT: 5:10 PM
PT: 4:10 PM
AKT: 3:10 PM
HST: 1:10 PM

💸 Public Bets
Toronto 55% / LA Kings 45%

💰 Money Distribution
Toronto 40% / LA Kings 60%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
LA Kings ML moved from -105 to -115 despite public leaning Toronto, indicating sharp money on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Toronto +1.5 / EV calculated from implied odds (72% cover prob) vs. simulation (74%), supported by reverse line movement and injury impacts.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toronto Maple Leafs | 46% |
| Win % for Los Angeles Kings | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Toronto Maple Leafs | 74% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: William Nylander / Points Over / 0.5 at -225 / 72% / Nylander’s 1.2 points/game average (current season) surges on PP1 (25% usage), facing Kings’ middling PK (80%) without Matthews diluting top-line shots.
Player Prop #2: Adrian Kempe / Shots on Goal Over / 2.5 at -154 / 68% / Kempe averages 3.1 SOG vs. Atlantic teams, exploiting Toronto’s depleted D (xGA up 15% post-injuries) in high-pace matchups.
Player Prop #3: Anze Kopitar / Assists Over / 0.5 at -130 / 70% / Kopitar’s 0.8 A/60 on even strength leads Kings, with Toronto’s secondary scoring (1.9 GF/60 without Matthews) creating setup opportunities.

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors Toronto as the home underdog, but sharp money (60%) flows to the Kings amid divergent alignment, signaling value in fading the crowd where RLM and metrics converge on a close, higher-scoring affair. Matthews’ lower-body injury (out at least a week) hampers Toronto’s offense (projected -0.8 xGF), while Kings’ balanced attack (top-10 xGF/xGA) exploits this without major absences. Overall, expect moderate goals (avg 6.1) driven by power-play edges and fatigue from recent games.

Recommended Play

Fade the public on Toronto — mathematical probability favors Kings’ moneyline and spread resistance, backed by 52% win sim and +EV from pro action.

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