Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-23 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-23 10:00 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Vegas Golden Knights / Spread / -1.5 at +140 / 55% / Vegas holds a stronger defensive structure this season with top-10 xGA per 60, while Toronto’s recent road struggles and injury concerns to key forwards tilt the puck line coverage in their favor despite public leaning home.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6 at -110 / 60% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for high-danger chances allowed, with goalies posting sub-.910 save percentages in recent matchups; simulation projects average total of 5.4 goals, flipped to under per NHL historical trends.

💰 Best Bet #3 Vegas Golden Knights / Moneyline / -120 / 58% / Vegas boasts a superior 24-13-12 record versus Toronto’s 24-17-9, bolstered by better Corsi control and power-play efficiency in the current season.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights on 2026-01-23

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Vegas Golden Knights 62% / Toronto Maple Leafs 38%

💰 Money Distribution

Vegas Golden Knights 58% / Toronto Maple Leafs 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Vegas -110 ML and 5.5 total, moving to -120 ML and 6 total with balanced action; no significant RLM, indicating consensus on slight Vegas favoritism amid high wagering volume.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Vegas side / Consensus from public and money percentages aligns with season metrics like Vegas’s edge in xGF differential (+0.4 per 60), creating value against Toronto’s middling home form; EV calculated from implied odds (52.4% for Vegas ML) versus estimated true probability (56%).

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toronto Maple Leafs | 48.2% |
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 51.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Toronto Maple Leafs | 42.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.3% / Under: 50.7% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, 2.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Auston Matthews / Over Points / 1.5 at -115 / 72% / Matthews averages 1.2 points per game this season with high usage (25%) against Vegas’s middling penalty kill (78%), supported by Toronto’s top-5 power-play xG rate favoring multi-point outings.

Player Prop #2: Jack Eichel / Over Assists / 0.5 at -130 / 68% / Eichel leads Vegas with 0.8 assists per game, exploiting Toronto’s defensive zone start disadvantages (52%); matchup data shows Vegas generating 32 shots per game, boosting secondary scoring chances.

Player Prop #3: William Nylander / Under Goals / 0.5 at -120 / 65% / Nylander’s shooting percentage regresses to 11% this season versus Vegas’s elite high-danger save rate (89%), with Toronto allowing 2.9 xGA per 60 to top lines, limiting primary scoring.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Vegas on the moneyline, aligning with sharp money distribution and season-long metrics like superior Corsi (51.2% for Vegas vs. 49.8% for Toronto), making a follow-public approach optimal rather than fading without RLM support. Toronto’s home advantage is offset by recent form dips and potential fatigue from a compressed schedule, while Vegas’s injuries to depth players do not impact core production. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with both defenses allowing under 2.8 xGA per 60 and goalies in strong form, projecting a tight, under-6 contest.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Vegas Golden Knights — mathematical probability favors their edge in puck possession and goaltending matchup for a narrow victory.

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