Troy vs Georgia State

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 02:17 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Troy / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 60% / Troy’s superior SP+ ratings and home-field edge against Georgia State’s weak run defense provide a clear covering opportunity, supported by recent form where Troy covers 60% of home favorites.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 51.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank in the top half for yards per play allowed, with Troy’s explosive offense pushing tempo; recent matchups average 54 points, favoring the over despite moderate defensive metrics.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Troy / Moneyline / -320 / 65% / Troy’s 65% simulated win probability aligns with their 7-3 record against the spread as favorites this season, outclassing Georgia State’s 2-8 road performance.]

Troy vs Georgia State on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 04:00 PM
CT: 03:00 PM
MT: 02:00 PM
PT: 01:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[Troy 68% / Georgia State 32%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Troy 72% / Georgia State 28%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Opened at -6.5 for Troy, moved to -7.5 with balanced action; no significant RLM despite public leaning toward the favorite.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.5% on Troy spread; implied probability undervalues Troy’s defensive havoc rate (18%) against Georgia State’s turnover-prone offense, creating value despite public support.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Troy | 65.00% |
| Win % for Georgia State | 35.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Troy | 58.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.00% / Under: 48.00% |
| Average Total Points | 51.20 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.00, 18.00] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tucker Kilcrease / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -115 / 70% / Kilcrease averages 278 yards in home games this season, exploiting Georgia State’s pass defense that allows 280+ yards in 7 of 10 road outings; matchup favors high-volume passing with no key secondary injuries reported.

Player Prop #2: Jarris Williams / Over Receiving Yards / 65.5 / -110 / 65% / Williams has hit over in 6 of last 8, with Troy’s offense generating 25 explosive plays per game; Georgia State’s coverage ranks bottom-20 in success rate against slot receivers.

Player Prop #3: Christian Veilleux / Under Passing Yards / 180.5 / -105 / 68% / Veilleux struggles on the road (avg. 162 yards), facing Troy’s top-30 havoc rate; recent games show under in 70% of away starts against strong fronts, with limited protection from injuries to linemen like Fuches Lewis II.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Troy, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow on the favorite optimal rather than a forced fade. Georgia State’s injuries to key rushers like Branson Robinson limit their ground game, tilting the matchup toward Troy’s balanced attack. Overall scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with Troy’s red-zone efficiency (75%) pushing toward the over but defensive stands capping explosive exchanges.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Troy] — mathematical projections confirm the favorite’s edge through superior metrics and home dominance.

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