Tulane vs Charlotte

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 10:05 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Tulane / Spread / -28.5 at -110 / 68% / Tulane dominates poor 1-10 Charlotte with superior SP+ ratings, recent high-scoring wins, and home advantage; sim shows strong cover probability.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 58.5 at -110 / 58% / Charlotte’s anemic offense (avg 15 PPG allowed contextually) meets Tulane’s solid defense; recent trends and pace suggest controlled, lower-scoring affair despite some over signals.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tulane / Moneyline / -3500 / 98% / Overwhelming mismatch favors Tulane victory in 98% of simulations, backed by 9-2 record vs Charlotte’s struggles.

Tulane vs Charlotte on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Tulane 94% / Charlotte 6%

💰 Money Distribution
Tulane 82% / Charlotte 18%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Tulane -26.5, moved to -29.5 despite heavy public action on favorite, indicating possible sharp reinforcement on Tulane.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Tulane spread; convergence of sim (68% cover), RLM support, and metrics outweigh public fade potential in mismatch.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jake Retzlaff / Over Passing Yards / 325.5 / -115 / 72% / Tulane QB efficient vs weak Charlotte secondary (bottom havoc rate); recent 300+ yd games in wins, high usage.
Player Prop #2: Armondous Cooley / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -110 / 70% / Key Tulane RB exploits Charlotte’s poor rush D (6.8 YPP allowed); consistent 90+ in recent outings.
Player Prop #3: Shazz Preston / Over Receiving Yards / 65.5 / -112 / 68% / WR volume receiver in pass-heavy scheme vs soft coverage; 70+ in 4/5 last games.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tulane | 98.2% |
| Win % for Charlotte | 1.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Tulane | 68.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42.1% / Under: 57.9% |
| Average Total Points | 52.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [16.2, 51.8] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Tulane aligns with money distribution and line movement toward heavier favorite, signaling consensus rather than sharp divergence—follow optimal here. Charlotte’s defensive woes met by Tulane’s explosive offense, but low Charlotte scoring caps total under line. Overall outlook leans moderate scoring with Tulane blowout potential.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Tulane — math, sims, and market confirm highest probability on Green Wave dominance.

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