Tulsa vs Memphis

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-21 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-21 11:33 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Tulsa / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 55% / Tulsa’s home-court edge and superior adjusted efficiency ratings give them a clear advantage, covering in 65% of similar matchups this season.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for tempo and offensive rebounding, with recent games averaging under this line amid defensive emphases.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tulsa / Moneyline / -220 / 65% / Strong home form and Memphis’s road struggles support Tulsa’s outright win probability, backed by positive EV against implied odds.

🏀 Matchup: Tulsa vs Memphis on 2026-01-21

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Memphis 62% / Tulsa 38%

💰 Money Distribution

Memphis 45% / Tulsa 55%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Tulsa -4.5 but moved to -5.5 with sharp action on the home side, despite public leaning toward the underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Tulsa spread / Reverse line movement and home efficiency metrics outweigh public sentiment, creating value against the implied probability.

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tulsa | 65.00% |
| Win % for Memphis | 35.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Tulsa | 55.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.00% / Under: 52.00% |
| Average Total Points | 140.50 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [ -2.50, 12.30 ] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors the underdog Memphis, but sharp money and line movement indicate professional backing for Tulsa, creating a contrarian edge on the home team. Defensive metrics for both sides suggest a lower-scoring affair, with Tulsa’s havoc rate limiting Memphis’s efficiency on the road. Overall, following the money distribution aligns with mathematical probabilities for a Tulsa victory under the total.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Memphis — Tulsa holds the best mathematical probability of winning, supported by home advantage and simulation outcomes.

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