Tulsa vs Missouri State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-06 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:46 AM EST

Tulsa vs Missouri State on 2025-12-06

💰 Best Bet #1 [Tulsa / Spread / +4.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation indicates Tulsa covers in over 55% of scenarios, supported by recent form and Missouri State’s defensive vulnerabilities in current season metrics.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 141.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ offensive efficiencies and pace suggest a combined average near 141, with sim projecting slight over edge based on adjusted ratings and rebounding rates.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Missouri State / Moneyline / -185 / 62% / Strong home advantage and superior win probability from Monte Carlo runs align with current season success rates.]

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Tulsa 35% / Missouri State 65%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Tulsa 45% / Missouri State 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Spread opened at -5 for Missouri State, moved to -4.5 with balanced action; total steady at 141.5 despite minor sharp interest on over.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Tulsa spread cover; public leans Missouri State but money split indicates value on underdog side per reverse line hints and sim convergence.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tulsa | 38.2% |
| Win % for Missouri State | 61.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Tulsa | 55.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 141.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.3, 8.5] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors Missouri State with aligned money distribution, supporting a follow strategy on the favorite given home-court metrics and current season offensive trends. Sharp action shows minor resistance via spread movement, but EV edges favor the underdog cover without forcing a fade. Overall game scoring projects moderately high, with both teams’ efficiencies pointing to a total near the line based on pace and rebounding data.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Missouri State] — mathematical probability favors the home win in 62% of simulations.

Highlights unavailable.