Tulsa vs UAB

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:29 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Tulsa / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 58% / Tulsa holds home edge with 4-7 record vs UAB’s 3-8 and four straight losses; recent defensive improvements support cover against leaky UAB offense.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 56.5 at -110 / 56% / Both teams in high-scoring recent games (Tulsa avgs 52 total pts last 3, UAB 71); weak defenses and fast tempo favor pushing past total.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tulsa / Moneyline / -295 / 65% / Superior record, home field, and UAB’s road struggles align with strong favorite status.

🏈 Tulsa vs UAB on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Tulsa 68% / UAB 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Tulsa 72% / UAB 28%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Tulsa -7.5, moved to -8 before settling at -7.5; slight steam toward home team despite heavy public action.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tulsa | 64.2% |
| Win % for UAB | 33.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Tulsa (-7.5) | 57.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 56.3% / Under: 43.7% |
| Average Total Points | 57.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 20.1] |

💸 Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Dominic Richardson / Over Rushing Yards / 72.5 at -115 / 62% Tulsa RB leads backfield usage (avg 85 yds last 3), UAB allows 180 rush yds/g to RBs; favorable matchup data.
Player Prop #2: Braylin Presley / Over Receiving Yards / 58.5 at -110 / 59% Key WR with 70% catch rate, 65 yds avg; UAB secondary vulnerable (250 pass yds allowed/g recently).
Player Prop #3: Amari Brundidge / Under Receiving Yards / 55.5 at -112 / 61% UAB WR faces Tulsa DBs stout vs pass (180 allowed/g); Brundidge under in 4/5 road games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Tulsa aligns with money distribution and line stability, indicating consensus without sharp resistance; follow public as EV positive on home side. Game projects high-scoring with both offenses exploiting weak defenses (UAB allows 36 pts/g, Tulsa 28). No major injuries reported, supporting model edges.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Tulsa — mathematical probability favors home win/cover at 64% sim rate.

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