UAB Blazers vs Miss Valley St Delta Devils

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 07:12 PM EST

UAB Blazers vs Miss Valley St Delta Devils on 2025-11-03

Game Times

• ET: 8:00 PM
• CT: 7:00 PM
• MT: 6:00 PM
• PT: 5:00 PM
• AKT: 4:00 PM
• HST: 2:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 UAB Blazers / Spread / -35.5 at -110 / 52% / Simulation indicates 50.3% cover probability aligning with even-money value, bolstered by UAB’s superior efficiency ratings and home-court advantage in a mismatch against a weaker opponent.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 51% / Projected average total of 146.4 points from 10,000 simulations, combined with UAB’s adjusted defensive efficiency and MVS’s low-tempo style, favors a slightly suppressed scoring output.

💰 Best Bet #3 UAB Blazers / Moneyline / -20000 / 98% / Over 98% win probability in simulations, driven by massive talent and efficiency gap, making this a high-confidence play despite juice.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UAB Blazers | 98.1% |
| Win % for Miss Valley St Delta Devils | 1.9% |
| Tie % | 0.0% |
| Spread Cover % for UAB Blazers (-35.5) | 50.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Miss Valley St Delta Devils (+35.5) | 0.0% |
| Over Probability (146.5) | 49.8% |
| Under Probability (146.5) | 50.2% |
| Push % Total | 0.0% |
| Average Total Points | 146.4 |
| Average Margin (UAB – MVS) | 35.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [35.1, 35.8] |

💸 Public Bets
UAB Blazers 85% / Miss Valley St Delta Devils 15%

💰 Money Distribution
UAB Blazers 75% / Miss Valley St Delta Devils 25%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -35.5 across major books, opening similarly with minimal shifts indicating consensus on the heavy favorite status.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2% on UAB spread; implied probability from odds (52.4%) slightly exceeds simulation cover rate of 50.3%, creating value in the home team’s dominance per adjusted efficiency metrics.

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Christian Coleman (UAB) / Over 18.5 Points / -110 / 75% / Coleman’s high usage rate (28%) and effective FG% (55%) against MVS’s weak perimeter defense support exceeding this line, as seen in preseason trends.
• Player Prop #2: Alejandro Vasquez (UAB) / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -115 / 70% / Increased rebounding opportunity post-roster changes, with UAB’s offensive rebound % (32%) dominating MVS’s poor defensive boards (22% allowed).
• Player Prop #3: Quadir Carter (MVS) / Under 12.5 Points / -105 / 72% / Carter’s low efficiency (42% eFG) faces UAB’s top-100 defensive rating, limiting output in a fast-paced but mismatched matchup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors UAB, aligning with sharp money indicators and simulation outcomes, making following the public the optimal approach in this lopsided contest. No significant reverse line movement suggests market efficiency without sharp resistance. Overall game scoring projects as moderate, with UAB’s defensive rebounding and MVS’s turnover-prone offense (25% rate) capping the total below the line more often than not.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with UAB Blazers — mathematical probability overwhelmingly supports the favorite in win, cover, and scoring projections.

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