UAB vs South Florida

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-22 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-22 10:45 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [UAB / Spread / +5.5 at -110 / 58% / UAB’s strong home defense and recent upset form against similar opponents provide value as underdogs, with line movement favoring the dog despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams rank below average in pace and efficiency against AAC foes, with UAB allowing low points at home and USF struggling offensively on the road in recent games.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [South Florida / Moneyline / -210 / 65% / USF’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency and rebounding edge make them the safer outright pick, even on the road.]

UAB vs South Florida on 2026-01-22

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[UAB 55% / South Florida 45%]

💰 Money Distribution
[UAB 40% / South Florida 60%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at South Florida -4 and moved to -5.5 early, then stabilized at -5 despite 55% public on the home dog, indicating sharp money on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on UAB spread; reverse line movement against public action, combined with UAB’s home cover rate (65% in last 10) and USF’s road ATS struggles (3-7), creates positive value.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UAB | 42% |
| Win % for South Florida | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for UAB (+5.5) | 57% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41% / Under: 59% |
| Average Total Points | 138.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward the home underdog UAB, but money distribution and line movement point to sharp action on South Florida, creating a divergent market where fading the public holds edge. Both teams exhibit defensive strengths in conference play, with UAB’s home games averaging under 135 points and USF limiting opponents below their season average on the road, suggesting a lower-scoring affair. Overall, the math favors following the pros on the favorite while finding value in the underdog spread.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on UAB — South Florida’s efficiency metrics and recent form against mid-tier defenses provide the strongest probability for a win, supported by sharp money indicators.

Highlights unavailable.