NCAAB
UC Davis vs 
Hawaii
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 09:12 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 UC Davis Aggies +1.5 at -110 / 54% / Sim shows tight margin with home-court edge offsetting Hawaii’s form; public overexposure on road favorite creates value
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 149.5 at -110 / 55% / Combined recent trends yield avg total ~148, defensive focus and travel fatigue limit scoring
💰 Best Bet #3 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors ML at -134 / 56% / Slight edge in win prob aligns with market consensus despite vig
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UC Davis Aggies | 46% |
| Win % for Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors | 54% |
| Spread Cover % for Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors | 51% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 149.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20.8, 23.1] |
🏀 Matchup: UC Davis Aggies vs Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
💸 Public Bets
[43% / 57%]
💰 Money Distribution
[38% / 62%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Line steadied at -1.5 to -2 range across books with slight steam toward Hawaii despite early variance
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on UC Davis +1.5 — sim probs exceed implied after vig adjustment, supported by Hawaii cross-country travel
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Sione Heko (UC Davis) Over 13.5 Points at -112 / 73% / Averages 15.2 pts last 5 home games, Hawaii allows 68 pts/game to guards
Player Prop #2: Noel Coleman (Hawai’i) Over 18.5 Points at -110 / 71% / Leads team at 20.1 pts/game recently, UC Davis weak vs perimeter shooters allowing 36% 3P
Player Prop #3: Kane Murchison (UC Davis) Over 7.5 Rebounds at -108 / 74% / Grabs 9.4 reb/game home, exploits Hawaii’s low rebound rate (32% def reb%)
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and sharp money both lean Hawaii but at levels creating overlay on UC Davis spread given sim tightness and home/rest advantage. Game projects low-scoring with unders hitting 52% in model matching public under lean. Fade opportunity minimal as alignment holds without RLM signal.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Hawai’i — UC Davis +1.5 carries superior EV.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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